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1c:Td05,悩める受験生が自信を持てるよう回答いたします。
私は浪人を経験していませんし国立ですが、逆転合格体験はおそらく誰にも劣らないので回答させていただきます。
(質問者さんにはすでにお伝えした内容と重複しますがご了承下さい。)

まず、模試の成績からです。


東進マーク模試
高210月E→12月E→同日体験E→高34月E→6月E→8月E→10月E→12月E

学校指定　マーク模試
高2同日E→4月E→6月E→10月E→12月最終E
(得点率65%でそれでも過去最高)

進研模試
高1入学当初60オーバー→1月で50以下、以降卒業まで50半ば

駿台、河合　記述→すべて50台、国数英は回によって40台

冠模試　東進→河合→駿台→東進②→河合②
d→最下位ランク→最下位ランク→c→最下位ランク


気持ち良いほどのE判定ないしは最下位ランクで、それ以外の判定を見れたのは東進開催の冠模試だけでした。(自分が受けてきた模試の中で最も母数が少ない模試と、2番目に母数が少ない模試でした。)



本番は、共通78%、二次試験得点率55%前後でした。
奇跡とも言える得点率の大幅上昇があっても、合格者ランキングは下位10位で、予定されていた募集人数よりは溢れていました。


ちなみに、明治に6回、東京理科大に2回分出願し、すべて不合格です。




メンタルは崩壊寸前ではありません。崩壊していました。
お医者様からも診断をもらう手前でしたが、学校内併設のスクールカウンセラーには通っていました。

なぜ私が合格できたかは、過去の私の回答にも書いてはいますが、それに加えて重要だったなと感じるのは、他を圧倒する戦略と過去問演習量です。




東北大文学部は共通600＋二次1000の1600満点で、毎年1000点弱で合格でした。

内訳として、国英がそれぞれ500点ずつ、数学でも300点分があったので、コスパの良い理科基礎に加えては国数英しかやらず、日本史と倫理政治経済を捨てる戦法に出ました。

結果としては、日本史は1月から２週間だけ本気を出しましたが、共通テストの倫理分野50点分はノー勉で挑みました。社会2科目は高校の学校内順位が下位3人に入っており、大学合格後も赤点による留年の可能性があったため、追加課題を提出させられるレベルでした。


私の勉強は、とにかく国数英でした。
それも、過去問10年分を解き切った上での分析により、出題傾向の高い確率・二次関数・微積、コスパの良い漢文と現代文、英作文にターゲットを絞りました。



以上のように、志望校に対する強いこだわりと、正しい量とベクトルの努力をすれば、実力以上の大学にも合格ができます。
志望校のレベルに達することが合格最短ルートではありません。志望校の対策をして、志望校に特化した力をつけることが最短ルートなのです。


以上、参考にして頂ければ幸いです。1d:T1190,私の受験期の話をさせていただきます。少しでも参考になれば幸いです。


私は中学3年生の時、早稲田大学の附属の高校への指定校推薦のお話を頂きました。しかしその当時の僕は、『俺の実力なら早稲田なんて大学受験の時でも入れるっしょ』という思いが半分、残り半分は『とりあえず自分の行きたい高校があるから別にちゃんと考えなくていいや』という思いが占めており、親にも誰にも相談せずにそのお誘いを断りました。


幸い、第一志望の高校に入学でき、コロナウイルスが流行し休校期間になった新高校3年の春休み前までは楽しい時間を過ごすことができていました。
しかし、このタイミングで周りが本格的に受験勉強を開始しました。それと同時に自分はその流れについていくことができずにスタートダッシュに失敗し、早稲田大学のレベルの高さを痛感するとともにどうしようもない後悔が生まれ、地元の友達とは違って、『合格しなければその先の進路がない』という漠然とした焦りから躁鬱状態になりました。月に1度カウンセラーに通い始めましたが、それまでの学校でのキャラからは考えられない状態になってしまっており、それを隠すために学校をズル休みしたりと、規則正しい生活とはかけ離れた生活を送っていました。


成績はもちろん伸びませんでした。
共通テスト直前の、クリスマスに実施された最終マーク模試で過去最高の65%(東北大志願者は平均80%を取っていました)、マーク模試・冠模試共に全てE判定。倫理政治経済の倫理分野に関しては、ほとんど手をつけていませんでした。(履修者はわかるかもしれませんが、青年期のみの勉強でした。)


私立もほとんど落ちました。
共通テスト利用の2校4学部、個別受験の2校4学部(内1学部は鬱状態にて欠席)。受かったのは専修大学の1つの学部のみです。

過去問はたくさん解きました。東北大の過去問だけでも3科目10年分解きました。しかしながら、合格点レベルの50%を超えたのは、3科目10年分の計30回のうち、4〜5つでした。


ですが、滑り込みで合格を勝ち取ることができました。実際、合格予定枠からは溢れていましたが、なんとか最下位レベルでの合格でした。




なぜ私が合格できたのか。

それは、残り1ヶ月の追い込み(自分はたまたま躁状態が多くを占めていた)がハマったことと、戦略的な部分が大きく関与したからです。

戦略的な部分としては、私の受験科目と共通・2次の合算得点、計1600満点分の内、国数英だけで1300点を占めていました。なので、社会科目は捨てました。
短時間で対策できる理科基礎科目と国数英に全てを捧げただけでなく、過去問10年分から予測できた傾向(例えば、東北大の文系数学はほとんどの年で、二次関数・確率・微積とあと適当な1分野の大問4つの構成)から考え、東北大の合格だけを目指して勉強しました。




はっきり言って、もう時間はありません。覚悟を決める必要があります。

今、1番合格したい大学と学部を決めて下さい。その学部の過去問を10年2周してください。
そして、過去のことを振り返るのは辞めましょう。

私は、東北大を10年2周、北大数学10年、京都大阪神戸の英作文と和文英訳・英分和訳を10年、千葉大数学5年、北大国語5年くらいはやりました。
今からでも十分に間に合います。


正直、全ての受験生が、『もっと勉強しておけばよかった』と受験当日考えます。だからこそ、仮に嘘だとしても、自信を持って勉強したと自負してテストに臨みましょう。メンタルの問題だけでも合格へかなり近づきます。



たまたまの合格だってある。共通テストがハマって、共通テスト利用で受かるかもしれない。
直前だって伸びる。大丈夫。
自分の手で合格を掴んでください。1e:Tf2e,部活を辞めて勉強を頑張っていること、予備校なしでご自身で調べて勉強を進めていること、勉強量も確保できていること、本当に素晴らしいと思います。

「本当に今のまま頑張れば受かるのだろうかという不安」は勉強を頑張っているからこそのものだと思います。私は受験生の時、先生に「不安になる、緊張することは努力している証」としょっちゅう言われていました。努力をしていない人、あまり真剣に考えていない人は不安にすらなりません。当時の私はこれを素直に受け入れられませんでしたが、「自分の頑張りを認めること」はメンタル、モチベーションを保つ上で大切なことです。自分の頑張りを認め、「でも自分ならもっと頑張れる」という風に自分を鼓舞してみてください。自分を責めたり焦らせたり追いつめて追い込む方が向いている人もいるかもしれませんが、褒めることも忘れないでください。
そして、誰にも受かるかどうかなんて分からないです。どんなに成績が良くてもA判定を何度も取っていても過去問で点数が取れていても本番で点が取れなければ落ちてしまう、受験はそんな世界です。私自身、日本史が絶望的に苦手、よくてD判定、過去問も思うように点数が取れない、まさにどう考えたって早稲田に届くような成績ではありませんでした。（少なくとも自分ではそう思っていました。）試験会場では自分のやってきた努力、実力を信じるしかありません。逆に今の努力次第で未来はいくらでも変えられます。試験が終わってしまえば勉強したところで得点、解答は変わらず神頼みしかできません。
私はちょうど一年前の今頃、受かる気もしない、届く気もしない、どうすればいいのかも分からない不安に駆られ、先生の前で号泣しました（笑）当時先生は「こいつこのまま受験までもつのか」と思ったそうですが、なんとか持ちこたえてくれました。（途中スランプはありましたが）大切なのは志望校への気持ちだと思います。どんなに辛いときも「○○大学に行きたい」という強い気持ちさえあれば乗り切れると信じています。気持ちがあれば合格するためには何が必要で何が足りていないのか、考えて考えて何かしら道が見えてくると思います。（精神論ですが）「間に合うか分からない」という不安もあると思います。そこは強硬に、「間に合わないんじゃなくて間に合わせる」と思ってください。ここでも強い気持ちを持ってください。見せかけでもいいです、強く思い込めばその影響力は凄まじいです。
心の中でごちゃごちゃしているものは一度紙に書き出したり、人に話したりして整理してみるのはどうでしょうか。必ずしも根本的な解決には繋がらないかもしれませんが、精神的にはだいぶ楽になります。
人と比べないことも心がけてみてください。さっきも書きましたが、受験は本番で点数が取れるかどうかなので他人は関係ありません。あの子の方が自分より頑張ってるとか自分の方があの子よりも成績が低いとかは受験には直接関係ありません。自分は自分で頑張って合格最低点を超えさえすえばよいのです。

まとまりのない文章になってしまいましたが、参考になれば幸いです。志望校合格を願っています！2:["$","main",null,{"className":"px-4 pt-4 pb-4","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-3xl mx-auto w-full","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://unilink-app.onelink.me/isbO/h6xeh63x?advice=t1IIaH8BTqPwDZPuIUlH","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/web_to_app_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink WebToAppバナー画像","className":"mb-4 rounded"}]}]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold mb-2","children":"受かる気がしない…"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex justify-between mb-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"text-left text-xs text-caption","children":["クリップ(",7,") コメント(",1,")"]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-right text-xs text-caption","children":"3/8 14:37"}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"coach-mark 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"模試 E判定 これからの勉強"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"こんにちは。\n模試、お疲れ様です。\nこの時期にその判定なのはある意味当然なことです。最初からA判定なら、勉強する必要なくなってしまいます笑\nそれに浪人生は1年間勉強していて、まだまだ力があります。現役生はここから伸ばしていかなくてはいけません。そして最後の模試までE判定でも受かること、結構あります。逆にA判定でも落ちます(両方経験済みです)。なぜなら、各大学、学部の問題の傾向によって得意不得意があるからです。だから、判定ではなく、何を間違えたかよく確認してみてください。(ちなみに、立教Cを今出せてるなら、早稲田の合格可能性はとてもあります)\n勉強の点で言うと、まずは英語はこの調子で頑張ってください。現時点でこの成績なら十分後々戦えます。あとは日本史ですね。歴史は浪人生が圧倒的に強いです。教科書の読み込みから始め、用語集に出る細かいところまできちんと確認しましょう。また国語は古漢を文法からしっかりと勉強してみるとよいでしょう。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"涙が止まりません"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"ともだちがD...\n正直DもEも同じだよ。大丈夫。\n\nたくさん解いたりしてるみたいだけれど、復習はちゃんとやってるかな？復習作業が1番大事だよ。\n\n英検準1は大学入試レベルと言われるので、その勉強はむだにはならないと思う。センター英語が7割？よく間違えるのはどこらへんかな。それで対処の仕方も変わってくる。見直しの時間はある？30分余らせるように心懸けるといいよ、速読の訓練にもなるし、見直し時間も作れるわけだし。\n\n国語はどこらへんが失点するかな。現代文は易しめと言われるのでできれば失点したくない。現代文の選択肢、正答以外は半分合ってて半分若干違うみたいなパターンが多かったような記憶があるので、ふつうに消去法で。全体として結局この文は何が言いたいのか、を念頭に置きながら読み進める。\n古文は単語と文法、漢文は句形を短期集中で覚えればなんとかなる。だらだら覚えるとまじで頭に入らないので注意。\n\n日本史も、早慶合格のキーとなる科目なのでしっかり得点したい。合格者はおおむね9割はとってくると思って。(実際そうだから)\n資料集と用語集参照は必須、というかこれがあったほうがおもしろいと思うのでよくここから拾ってこう。あと問題集でおすすめするのは有名だと思うけれどz会実力つける100題ね。早慶受ける人けっこうこれやってるから。センターレベルではないけれど。\n\n質問者さん、成績派手にやってるみたいだけれど、その成績をバネにこれからどう勉強していくかが問題。ぶっちゃけ年内まで、模試でAだろうがEだろうが、最終結果どうなるかわからないから。諦めずに頑張っていこう。\n\n家族の思いを背負っていることも自覚されてるようだから、あとは自分を信じて、確実に努力を積み重ねていこうねー。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary 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mb-1","children":"私は高2のセンター同日が英語も国語も4割程度でした。でも現役で慶應文早稲田文受かってます。\nあなたが諦める必要は微塵もありません。ビリギャル知ってますか？あれ珍しくもなんとも有りません。私立なら毎年何千人も逆転合格してます。\n具体的な勉強法ですが英語は単語帳1冊丸暗記するまで他は学校以外何もやらなくていいですよ。\n私はセンター同日の後5ヶ月かけて単語帳1冊丸暗記しました。ゴールデンウィークのマーク模試で9割いってました。単語帳以外は学校の授業だけです。\n古文は学校で配られた古文単語帳と文法書、漢文も学校で配られた文法句法書を丸暗記しました。古文漢文に至ってはゴールデンウィークのマーク模試どっちも満点でした。基礎を制すればセンターは無双ってことですね。\nですが私の場合第1志望が慶應文で四択や並び替えなどの文法問題は無視してたので、英語の大問2はずっと苦手なままでした。\n青学でしたら文法問題対策は必須かと思われますのでビンテージやネクステ系の問題集かセンターの過去問の大問2を単語と同時にやることをお勧めします。\nあと注意点として私はセンター同日の次の日から1日14時間ぐらい勉強してたのでそれぐらいの覚悟は必要かと。\nえっとまとめますね。\nまず①の勉強法ですが英語は単語帳1冊丸暗記、古典は単語と文法丸暗記。何故成績が上がらなかったか、基礎が完成してないから。\n②1日何時間勉強したらいいのか。学校に拘束されている時間以外の起きてる時間全てを費やす。\n③志望校を変えるべきか、変えるべきです！早慶に標準を合わせましょう。\n④3月までに偏差値60は可能です！全ては基礎をマスター出来るかどうかにかかってます！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"模試の成績"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"こんにちは！東北大学文学部のkitaです！\n自分は、3年の最後の方の模試でも全くいい結果が出ないのにずっと阪大を志望してて、共通テストが終わり東北に変えました。その経験を踏まえてお伝えさせていただきます！\n\nまず、才能がないなんてことありません。そして、まだ諦める必要もありません。\n\n確かに、僕がここで絶対合格するよ、とは言いきれませんが、合格の可能性はある、とは言えます。\n\nできないところばかり見ていませんか？\nできないところ、教科を、反省して、復習して、重点的に取り組むことはとても大事です。しかし、逆にできる教科はどうでしょうか？\n高二のこの時期で、英語8割はかなりいいと思いますよ。\nもっと自信を持ってください！\n\n勉強方法に関して、具体的にこれ！とは言いづらいです。しかし、絶対に諦めないでください。下げるのは、共通テスト本番がおわったあとでもできます。\nまずは、自分の苦手だけでなく、得意分野も含めて、自己分析をしてみて下さい。\nそして、次の模試の目標を決め、そこまでの計画を立ててください。\n模試は、所詮模擬です。そこで、計画がちょっと違ったな、と感じたら、次はそれを活かせばいいのです。\n\n\n偉そうに言ってきましたが、僕も全然成績が伸びず、本当にキツかったです。でも、今このように東北大学に通えて、たぬきさんにアドバイスできているのは、その時諦めなかったからだと思っています。\n時間はまだあります。絶対に、自分に才能がないなんて思わないでください。\n\n少しでも力になれたら、嬉しいです。\nたぬきさんの目標が達成されることをお祈りしています。\n頑張ってください！！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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