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19:Td32,こんにちは！早稲田大学文学部に通っている者です！今の過去問の点数で合格できるのか、と悩む気持ちよくわかります。自分も過去問を解いて同じような悩みを抱えていました。
今回は
①得点調整について
②回答者が本番何割だったか？
③実際何割とればいいの？
について書いていこうと思います。

①得点調整について
早稲田文学部は本番何割で合格出来るかについてネット上には7割とも8割とも書かれていますが、これらはどちらも正しいです！どういうことかというと、早稲田の入試には得点調整というものを行っている学部があり、文学部でも行われています。この関係で、どの教科が高くて、あるいは低くてその合計点数になったのかによって同じ素点でも合否が変わってきます！
得点調整の計算方法についてはたくさんの説がありどれが正しいのかはわかりませんが、受験者平均点が高い教科ほど得点調整で大きく点数が低くなるのは変わらないようです。なので例年平均点が高い国語は得点調整の影響を受けやすく高得点を取る必要があり、逆に社会系は得点調整の影響を受けづらいとされています。ここで「何割で受かる」というのは得点調整後の点数ではなく素点で何割かということです！

②回答者が本番何割だったか？
では実際自分は本番どれくらいの点数取ったかというと、細かい点数はおぼえていませんが、
英語:7割
国語:8割
日本史:6割
合計:7割
といった感じだったと記憶しています。この点数は7割で受かる人の良い例だと自分では思っています笑
自分は英語国語は比較的得意だったのですが、それに比べて日本史が壊滅的でした。なので日本史で落ちると思っていたのですが、英語と国語で平均をそこそこ大きく上回れたのが合格の要因になったかなと思います。

③実際何割とればいいの？
最後に、質問者様が実際本番で何割取れれば合格できるかですが、上に書いた通りどの教科で稼ぐかによって変わりはしますが、目標とする点数「英語6割、国語8割、世界史8割」ならばやや合格する確率のほうが落ちる確率より高いと思います。全体だと7割前半くらいになると思いますが、最も得点調整の影響を受ける国語で高得点を取れれば合格率はぐっと上がります！実際質問者様の目標点数と同じように、英語はあまり高くなかったけれど国語世界史で8割ほど本番で取って合格したという友人もいました。
そのうえで、英語を7割まで持っていければ合格はほぼ確実だと思います！

今は受験生として最もつらい時期だと思いますが、悩んでいるのはあなただけではありません。合格した人もみんな同じような悩みを抱えたまま本番を迎えます。本番まで今できることを精一杯やればきっと合格できます。
長くなりましたが、あなたが合格することを願っています！2:["$","main",null,{"className":"px-4 pt-4 pb-4","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-3xl mx-auto w-full","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://unilink-app.onelink.me/isbO/h6xeh63x?advice=euWKG2GIvub3tImf","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/web_to_app_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink WebToAppバナー画像","className":"mb-4 rounded"}]}]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold mb-2","children":"得点調整について"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex justify-between mb-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"text-left text-xs text-caption","children":["クリップ(",3,") コメント(",0,")"]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-right text-xs text-caption","children":"11/9 11:54"}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"coach-mark mb-4","children":"UniLink利用者の80%以上は、難関大学を志望する受験生です。これまでのデータから、偏差値の高いユーザーほど毎日UniLinkアプリを起動することが分かっています。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-4","children":["$","$L13",null,{"clientImageUrl":null,"clientUserName":"未登録ユーザー","infoString":"高卒 ","adviceId":"euWKG2GIvub3tImf"}]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"leading-loose whitespace-pre-wrap","children":[["$","div","consultation-part-0",{"children":[null,"慶応商志望の浪人生です。\n10月から過去問を解き始めました。\n今の所英語は7割5分、論文テストは6割〜8割、日本史は7割5分です。\n質問なのですが、得点調整があると聞きました。\n赤本には社会科目を得点調整していると書いてあったのですが、英語と論文テストでは得点調整はされないんですか？\nそれと、得点調整はどのくらい点数が変動するのでしょうか？\n\n長文ですいません。\n回答よろしくお願いします。"]}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"pt-4","children":["$","$L14",null,{}]}],null]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold mb-2","children":"回答"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-4","children":["$","$L15",null,{"adviserImageUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/unilink-48e75.appspot.com/o/images%2Fs_uUPnw1IM4MW7Zxg8.jpg?alt=media&token=52731cd1-5c84-4b09-890e-6bd928b9a8a6","adviserName":"Z34","adviserDepartment":"慶應義塾大学文学部","adviceId":"euWKG2GIvub3tImf"}]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"coach-mark mb-4","children":"すべての回答者は、学生証などを使用してUniLinkによって審査された東大・京大・慶應・早稲田・一橋・東工大・旧帝大のいずれかに所属する現役難関大生です。加えて、実際の回答をUniLinkが確認して一定の水準をクリアした合格者だけが登録できる仕組みとなっています。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"leading-loose whitespace-pre-wrap mb-4","children":[["$","div","advice-part-0",{"children":[null,"得点調整をする科目は地歴です。なぜかというと、調整をして標準化しなければ同じ基準で評価することができないからです。(全員が日本史受験ならする必要ない) \nしかし、年によって調整を行わない場合もあります。私が受験した年は行いませんでした。\n日本史受験でしたが、平均8割いっていてもおかしくない難易度でした。満点取る勢いじゃないと差がつかない程です。世界史も同じ現象だったようで、その時は点数そのまま反映されたとデータに書いてありました。\n論文はわかりませんが、当日の私の得点は英語8.5 日本史9.1 でした。 しかし不合格でした。\n相当論文で滑らない限り8割めどに取れば大丈夫ですが、満点を取る勢いで頑張ってください。"]}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-4","children":["$","$L16",null,{"adviserImageUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/unilink-48e75.appspot.com/o/images%2Fs_uUPnw1IM4MW7Zxg8.jpg?alt=media&token=52731cd1-5c84-4b09-890e-6bd928b9a8a6","adviserName":"Z34","adviserDepartment":"慶應義塾大学文学部","adviceId":"euWKG2GIvub3tImf","numberOfFan":412,"clipsAvg":7.737113402061856,"adviceRateAvg":4.463414634146342,"profile":"サッカー全国選手権出場/現役合格 \n慶應は4学部、早稲田は2学部、マーチも合格しました。大手予備校でチューターをしておりましたのでなんなりとご相談ください。\n大雑把な質問だと適切な回答をすることができないかもしれないので、分かる範囲で偏差値や進度を教えていただけると助かります！"}]}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://ck.jp.ap.valuecommerce.com/servlet/referral?sid=3364577&pid=884970531&vc_url=http%3A%2F%2Fshingakunet.com%2F%3Fvos%3Dnrmnvccp0000100","rel":"nofollow","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/document_request_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink パンフレットバナー画像","className":"mt-4 rounded"}]}]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"pt-4","children":["$","$L17",null,{"id":"adsbygoogle-init-under-advice"}]}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex justify-between","children":[["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold","children":["コメント(",0,")"]}],["$","$L18",null,{"adviceId":"euWKG2GIvub3tImf"}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs p-4","children":"コメントで回答者に感謝を伝えましょう！相談者以外も投稿できます。"}]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold","children":"よく一緒に読まれている人気の回答"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"divide-y","children":[["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"/advice/PUt6D2xcbCqRLMeP","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"flex items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"得点調整"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"\n\n得点調整は気にしすぎてもしょうがないのですが、これは不合格を経験した人にしか分からない実態でもあるので、特別に私が浪人した時に開示したものを載せておきます。\n\nあくまで大学や受験年度によって変わってくるので参考までにです。\n\n\n\n＊点数表示は 素点/配点  →調整後の素点  （素点の平均点）\n\n\n\n◯早稲田大学 教育学部 生涯教育専修 →補欠不合格\n\n英語      33/50         →27.007点  （31.312点）\n日本史  25/50          →30.112点  （21.561点）\n国語      35/50         →32.251点  （29.703点）\n\n合計点  89.37/150     合格最低点 91.5\n\n\n\n◯早稲田  商学部  →不合格\n\n英語     43/80         →46.307点  （37.588点）\n国語     44/60         →33.189点  （40.972点）\n日本史  42/60         →38.491点  （34.9点）\n\n合計点  117.987/200    合格最低点126.75\n\n\nここから早稲田だと全科目平均6割   英語が7割以上が合格の目安かと思います。\n\n参考までに。\n残りの時間も精一杯頑張ってください！\n"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 2-2-.9-2-2 .9-2 2-2m0 10c2.7 0 5.8 1.29 6 2H6c.23-.72 3.31-2 6-2m0-12C9.79 4 8 5.79 8 8s1.79 4 4 4 4-1.79 4-4-1.79-4-4-4zm0 10c-2.67 0-8 1.34-8 4v2h16v-2c0-2.66-5.33-4-8-4z","children":[]}]]],"style":{"color":"$undefined"},"height":16,"width":16,"xmlns":"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs","children":["早稲田大学社会科学部"," ","seechan"]}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"点数の波が…"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"解きまくる というのはどのくらいの頻度でしょうか？毎日や、2日に1回くらいのペースでといて丸付けをして割合を出すことばかりだと正直危険ですよ。\nなぜ伸びないのか、現役で失敗しているのならわかっていると思います。根性や精神論で受かるほど甘くないと、去年の入試結果で痛いほど感じたのでは。\n過去問は解いて設問の作り方やヒントがどこらへんにあるかの傾向を分析するためのものです。\n出題者も適当に問題を作っていません。その人のこだわりがあり、クセがあります。それを理解してあげましょう。\n逆にそれを読み取れれば面白いくらい取れます。ゲームと同じです。\n慶應の問題は特に、私たちに向けたメッセージ性が感じられます。読み取ってあげましょう。\n\nペースはそれぞれ違いますが、やはり3日は最低でも開けた方が頭が整理されると思います。\n良くて8割取れている時、なぜ正解できたのか？どこを見て答えがそうなったのか、なぜ他の選択肢はダメなのか、そこまで突っ込んでみましょう。\n3年分でもそれをやると、だいぶ違ってくると思います。頑張ってください。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"模試オワッタ"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"今まではどんな勉強をしていたの？\n\n慶應は学部はどこ志望なのかな。\n\n英語は、文法や単語は完璧？\nYES➡︎多分応用力がないので、センターの過去問やどこか私大の過去問やっていこう。\nNO➡︎5割ということは、たぶんNOだと思うんだけれど、、、。文法、単語それぞれもってる教材一冊ずつでいいので3周はしよう。また、毎日長文は読んでると思うけれど、読んだ長文どれか一つ全文和訳をノートに書く。毎日。全文和訳をノートに書くと頭の中でうやむやにしていた訳がどれかすぐわかる。そこが弱点なので、どう補強するか考える。\n\n慶應は学部によって出題形式に色があるから、個別に対策が必要。\n\n日本史の点数もちょっと気になるな。日本史は慶應に受かる上でキーとなる科目なので、よくやっておくように。合格者は9割-満点とってくると思って。\n\n"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 2-2-.9-2-2 .9-2 2-2m0 10c2.7 0 5.8 1.29 6 2H6c.23-.72 3.31-2 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"英語と日本史"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"センターで悩んでいるのは日本史の方でしょうか？\n\nセンター日本史の出題形式は独特です。\n恐らく苦手とされているのは細かい正誤判断かと思います。\nセンターお得意の、２つに絞ってから細かい正誤を見極める作業は、日本史の正確な知識を問われるため、実力が顕著に現れる形式でもあるのです。\n\n一方、慶應、特に経済は論述がメインですね。\n論述は一見対策が難しいように感じますが、明確に○×がつけられる選択問題よりも、減点、加点の基準が広いです。\n国語が得意で、悪く言えば言いくるめるのが得意な人には、有利な形式なのです笑\n(慶應の試験科目に国語がないのも、日本史や英語、小論文で文章を書く力を測っているからだと言われています)\n\nですので、人によっては慶應の方がセンターより得意だという人もいます。\nそれは問われている能力の違いです。\nセンターは受験生に真っ向から「日本史の正確な知識」を問うています。\nだから、高得点を取るには用語集の詳細レベルの知識事項が求められることが意外と多いです。\n\n一方、慶應のあらゆる学部は、知識を持った上で、それをどう表現するかといった能力を問うています。\n文にも選択問題はありますが、捨て問もあるので難易度はそこまで高くないです。\n\nそこで、両方対応できるようになるには、やはり知識のアラがない状態を目指すのが安心ではないでしょうか。\n論述でなんとか誤魔化すのは窮地に立たされた時にのみ使うべきで、本来は細かい知識を書ければそれが一番良いのです笑\n日本史は努力が数字に反映されやすい科目です。\n頑張って٩( ᐛ )و\n"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"過去問 得点"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"\n今の時点でそれだけ取れているのであればいいです。\n自信を持ちましょう！\n\n\n得点調整を鑑みても大体の合格点の目安は、\n全教科平均6割＋英語7割 といった感じです。\n（2科目8割以上、英語5〜6割でも合格圏内）\n\n\n\nただやはり本番と過去問は緊張感も全然異なるので、模試と同様に過去問の点数もあまりあてになりません。\n\n\n受験を経験した身として、2月の受験生の方のメンタルも想定して質問に答えていますが、\n滑り止めや他学部の結果を待ちながら試験を受ける日々が続くのは、体力的にも精神的にも結構応えるもんです。\n\nこの極度のストレスにも耐えられるかどうか。\n\n\nこれが持っている実力以上に合否の鍵を握ってきます。\nE判定からの逆転合格もだからでるのです。\n\n\nつまり過去問の点数は合格を保証してくれません。\n\n\nだからこそ今は、点数を気にせずどんどん過去問に取り組み、復習を繰り返すことで、確かな実力と共に本番で動じない自信をつけて下さい！\n\n\nそうすることで合格により近づくと思います。\n応援しています。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"下手な質問ですが、得点調整と得点率について"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"得点調整は平均点によってどのくらい調整されるかが変わります。ですので、7割取れても平均点が高いとダメだったりします。\n年度によって平均点と変化量は変わらないので自分の自己採点はあまり参考になりませんが、英7.5 国7 世8くらいでした。\n\nここで、得点調整の方法を一つ紹介します。\n\n得点調整は様々な方式で為されているそうなので一概には言えませんが、ものすごく簡略化してその求め方はこれだと自分は確信しています。\n\n\n調整後の得点=自分の得点-(平均点-満点/2)\n(各教科ごとに計算してください)\n\n平均点を下回るとこれよりもさらに下げられ、、大きく上回ると下げられた方が緩やかになりますが、大体この式に当てはめれば大丈夫です。\n\n例えば英語の平均点を2016年度の36点とします。満点は80点で自分の得点を50点として先ほどの式に当てはめると、\n54点=50-(36-80/2) になります。\n\nこれは得点が上昇しているケースで、平均点の値が独立変数であることが分かると思います。\n\n商学部の平均点は大体英6割 国5割 歴6割くらいで\nすので、この数式を使うと確かに6〜6.5割では落ちる可能性があります。それが7割程度必要と言われる理由です。\n長々しくてすみません。読んでおいて損はないと思うので是非参考にしてみてください。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"喝を入れて欲しい"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"まず模試でそれだけ取れた事実は認めてあげて良いと思います。素晴らしいです。\nしかし共通テストと早稲田の試験は内容も難易度も違いますよね？\n過去問で取れてるなら話は別ですが、たかだかセンターレベルの模試で8.9割取ったぐらいで心のどこかで油断する余裕はありませんよ。\n早慶に受かる人は当たり前に取ってきます。そして浪人生ということである程度アドバンテージがあります。この時期は偏差値が高く出がちですが現役生がすぐに追いついてくるので油断する暇はありません。\n良い成績が取れたことで油断するのではなくモチベーションに繋げてください。結局模試は模試でしかない、A判定取れても落ちる奴は落ちるこれは忘れないでください。逆に悪い点数を取っても同じです。E判定でも受かる人は受かります。志望校のなかで自分の上に何人いるかだけ確認するのが良いと思います。あとは復習。これに尽きる。がんばれ！何度も言いますが早慶に受かる人でこの点数は当たり前です。やっと土台に立てたと思ってさらなる高みを目指してください。応援しています。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 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