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15:T10e9,個人的には完全に勉強の才能がゼロだったと仮定した場合、努力でいける範囲は日東駒専〜MARCHくらいではないかと思います。

ですが、進研模試で偏差値60を取る力があるのであれば、はやささんの場合、勉強の才能が少なくともゼロではないことは確かだと思います。

はやささんの場合、今から勉強をはじめて努力すれば、早稲田大学には十分合格できると思いますし、京都大と阪大についてはかなりの努力が必要だと思いますが不可能ではないと思います。

早稲田大学に関しては、私も今のはやささんとほぼ同じくらいの成績から私自身が早稲田に受かっていますし、私の教え子も早稲田、慶應義塾に受かっていますので、これは自信を持って可能といえると思います。進研模試で偏差値60取れる力があれば、そこから平日4時間✖️5日、土日8時間✖️2日の勉強を1年半続けることができれば、早稲田に現実的なラインで目指せると思います。私は早稲田大の教育学部出身ですが、意外と進研模試で偏差値70以上取ってしまうような人は少なく、偏差値60台くらいから頑張って入ったという人が周りに多いですので、学部を選べば全然狙えると思います。（政経や法は分からないです。）

一方で京都大学と大阪大学については私は確実に受かるとは個人的に断言はできないです。なぜなら自分に受かった経験がないからです。京都大と大阪大が早稲田大に比べると受かりにくいと思う理由は以下の3点です。

①一発勝負だから
・早稲田は学部を併願することで受験チャンスを複数回に増やせますが、京大は共通テストも２次も（後期やAOは受けない想定だと）基本1回しかチャンスがないので、本番一発回答できる実力が必要です。

②科目が多いから
・共テは6教科8科目、２次は英数国社の4科目必要です。特に数学の負担が大きく、英数は2年生のうちにある程度仕上げられていないと巻き返しが難しいので、努力ももちろんですが、いつから勉強をスタートしたかも影響大だと思います。スタートが遅すぎると物理的に間に合わないです。

③ライバルが強力だから
・文系の場合、理系と違って医学部などがないので、基本文系における最高峰の学力の持ち主が京大に集結してきます。学部数もめちゃくちゃ多いというわけでもないですから、早稲田のように穴場学部的な紛れも少なく、シンプルに真っ向勝負になりやすいです。

このような理由からやはり早稲田に比べると京大、阪大はだいぶ難しいと個人的には感じます。

ですが、もちろんデータでみると少数ではあるものの、はやささんと同じような偏差値のところから京大や阪大に受かっている人もいるので、これは良い指導者を見つけられるかが本当に大事ではないかと思います。京大、阪大に関しては、本当に目指される場合には可能なら指導者をつけたほうが合格できる可能性は上がると思います。私も独学で東大を目指して努力しましたが、高1から週40時間以上勉強しつづけて東大を断念する高2の冬までの2年間の間で、勉強法をミスってロスしてしまった時間が結構ありました。国公立、特に旧帝大は受かるまでに必要な勉強の量が段違いに多いので、少しのロスも命取りになりかねないです。指導者をつけて、勉強の方向性が間違っていないかこまめに修正することが大事だと思います。

その点早稲田の場合ははやささんの場合まだ１年半以上入試までに時間が残っているので、多少試行錯誤したり回り道したりしても間に合わせられる可能性が高いと思います。（私も間に合いました）

参考にしていただけたら幸いです🙇1b:Tc62,こんにちは！

京都大学薬学部に通うものです。

まだ2年生なので模試の結果的に無理そうというのは早計だと思います。
質問を見てる感じ、
ここから正しい勉強をしていけば、
充分に合格する可能性があると思います。

なので、ここでは無理して志望校を上げる必要があるのかどうかについて自分が考えていることを話したいと思います。

まず大前提として、
今の志望校にしかできない研究や勉強、その大学にしかいない教授の授業がどうしても受けたいのであれば無理して上げる必要もないですし、
逆にやりたいことを曲げる必要なんてあるわけありません。

そうでなかった場合は自分は東大を目指すのはかなりありだと思います。

これは自分の体験ですが、
京大に受かるのに浪人もしましたし
かなり苦労しました。

有名な難関大学ともなると
脳死で勉強しているだけでは合格することは不可能といえるでしょう。

それはほかのライバルたちに勉強量で大きな差をつけることが難しいからです。

周りも当然死ぬほど努力をしてきます。

その中で受かるためには
自分と志望校の間のレベル差をしっかりと認識すること

自分が弱点としているところを効率よく潰していくこと

得点を最大化させる勉強をすること

など、質で勝負しなければなりません。
自分も勉強はたくさんしましたが、
その分勉強計画もたくさん立ててきました。

この自分なりに考えて実践して修正をするサイクルが最も大切なのです。

これは大学受験を終えた今でも、
そしておそらくこれからの人生でいつまでも大事になってくる能力です。

京大に受かって一番良かったことは
京大に入れたことではなく
自分のこの試行錯誤して課題を突破する能力は通用したのだと実感したことです。

これはかなりの自信になっています。
なにを挑戦し始めるにしても、
京大受験よりは楽でしょ、　
と感じることができます。

それはもちろん一橋でも培われる能力ではありますが、
自分にとって一つ大きな挑戦をしてみることに最大の意味があると思っています。

東大か一橋か、どちらも狙える位置にいるのであれば

東大に挑み、苦しみながら勝ち取った合格は
今後の人生にか変わるほどの大きな自信になるとおもいます。

これは東大だからとか関係なく
全ての志望校を上げるか迷っている人に共通することだと思います。

どの周りの人から聞いても受験勉強は
内容はもちろん覚えていないことのほうが多いですが、
頑張ったあの経験にこそ価値があるといっています。

ぜひ自分にとって大きな挑戦をしてみてほしいです。

心から応援しています。2:["$","main",null,{"className":"px-4 pt-4 pb-4","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-3xl mx-auto w-full","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://unilink-app.onelink.me/isbO/h6xeh63x?advice=Fa0qi0EchJP7okgSNdAJ","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/web_to_app_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink WebToAppバナー画像","className":"mb-4 rounded"}]}]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold mb-2","children":"志望校選択"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex justify-between mb-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"text-left text-xs text-caption","children":["クリップ(",0,") コメント(",0,")"]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-right text-xs text-caption","children":"6/28 13:48"}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"coach-mark 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"MARCHか国公立か迷ってます"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"文章だけなので真意は分かりませんが、質問者様のお気持ちとしてはMARCHに傾いているのではないでしょうか？国公立への憧れはあるものの、現実的にはMARCHが志望校になりそうといったところでしょうか？\n\n\n受験戦略の観点からお伝えするとすれば\n国公立→私大に志望校を変更する人はいても、私大→国公立という人はまずいないです。\n\n科目を減らすことはできても、増やすことは現実的ではないでしょう。\n\n\n国公立を受けるにせよ、私大を受けるにせよ、勉強のベースとなる基礎的な知識ややるべきことは変わりません。\n\n変わってくるのは演習をするようになってから。\n具体的には高校3年生の夏以降だと思います。\n\n\nそのような部分を考慮するに、私からのアドバイスとしては高校3年生の前半くらいまでは国公立志望として粘っても良いのかと思います。\n\n\n夏休み前くらいの模試の結果で判断し、夏休みには国公立志望として7科目勉強するのか、私大志望として3科目勉強するのは指針を決定するべきかと。\n\n\n夏休みの貴重な勉強時間を最大限に活かすには、夏休み前までが期限だと思います。\n\n\n志望校の選択を後悔しないよう、まずは国公立も私立も受けられる可能性を残しておいて最終的にはご自身の実力との兼ね合いで決定していくことが良いと思いますよ！\n\n\n参考にしていただければ幸いです！\n\n"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"京大か地元大学か…"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"こんにちは！東工大一年のたまちゃんです。\n私の意見ですが、京都大学を目指した方が良いと思います。地元の国立大学志望にしてしまうと、やっぱり京都大学に行きたいと思っても、そこから京都大学に行けるレベルにするのはとても難しいことだと思います。京都大学志望にして、途中で無理そうだから地元の大学にするというのはできます。目標は高く設定しておくべきだと思います。また、まだ高2なのでまだまだ挽回できる時期です。ただ、京都大学は入るのが難しい大学なので、かなりの努力は必要だと思います。それを乗り切れるだけの強い意志があるなら、京都大学志望にするべきだと思います。\nまた、地元の国立大学とは岡山大学ですかね？…\nまぁ、岡山大学だとして話を進めます。\n私は広島出身なので、隣県の大学ということである程度難易度なども分かるのですが、そこの判定がB判定なら、まだまだ見込みもあると思いますし、私だったら京都大学志望にします。\nまた、こんなことはあまり言うべきではないですが、\nはっきり言うと、京都大学と岡山大学では大学の格が違います。就職などにも、圧倒的に京都大学の方が有利ですし、周りの人のレベルも違います。また、周りの人から受ける刺激なども違うと思います。\nまた、mさんが行く大学なのですからmさんが一番行きたい大学に行くべきだと思います。\n長文失礼しました。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"志望大学が決まりません！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"11月までに過去問をある程度解けるようになれそうになくても心配する必要はありません。現役生が一番伸びるのは高3の秋から冬にかけてです。今までちゃんと勉強してきているのであれば秋冬はそれが土台となって成長量は今までの比じゃなくなります。だから今はある程度解けるようになれる気がしなくても11月の自分がどうなっているかなんて誰にも予想つきませんよ。もちろん急成長する保証なんてどこにもないですが、私は高3の貴方くらいの時期に今通っている大学の問題にほとんど太刀打ちできませんでしたが11月くらいの模試では判定がひとつ上がっていました。\n受験において一番大切なのは思いです。どれだけ真摯に取り組み実力を発揮しきる精神力を持つかが勝負です。今の時点で諦めるなんて言わないでください。それに最初から高い目標を目指していれば、万が一そこがだめだったとしてもある程度の大学には入れるはずです。でも私は貴方のような人には是非受かってほしい。頑張ってください！！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"慶応とMARCH"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"　こんにちは、慶應義塾大学法学部のtonaです。高2から志望校のことについて真剣に考えていらっしゃること本当に素晴らしいと思います。\n\n　さて、偏差値が足りないのに目指して良いか、というご質問ですが、私の回答はもちろん目指して良いです。これは他の回答者さんも同じように答えるはずです。そして、その考え方は全くおこがましくなんかないです。受験勉強をしていたら上を目指したくなるのは当然で、それは自分が勉強を頑張るモチベーションにもなります。まして、ゆりさんは高校2年生ですので、まだ現段階で今の自分の偏差値を上限だとは思ってほしくないです。\n\n　基本的に偏差値などを含め周りからの評価は本番の合格に足りるかどうかを知るための手段でしかなく、受験生の思いや志望校の決定とは別の話です。そして、その思いが偏差値や周りの評価を覆し、結果合格を勝ち取る方々もいらっしゃいます。いわゆる逆転合格と言われるものです。繰り返しですが、高校2年生からであれば逆転ですらなく、着実にやって普通に合格することになります。参考までに、私は高校2年生の秋に周りとの出来の差を知り、そこから本格的に勉強を始めました。それで慶應の法学部に合格しています。なので、今からでも全然間に合います。\n\n　あと、偏差値を下げるのはいつでも出来ます。よく言われることです。まずは高い目標を持って、本番直前ダメそうなら下げる、という考え方でいてください。さらに言うと、私立は日程の被りがなければ何校でも受けられるので、直前に偏差値が足りないとしてもとりあえず受けることが大切です。　\n「合格はとりあえず受験しないとと受からない」です。\n色々なところで言われることですが、わりと真理です。その気持ちだけで受かっている友人や後輩もいます。\n\n　ここまでは精神論ですが、少し入試技術的なこと書きます。基本的に慶應文学部では英語と社会が大切になってきます。特に英語です。なので、それらを中心に勉強を進めてください。そうしていれば、MARCHに最終的に変えたとしても対応できます。\n\n\n　ここまで読んでいただきありがとうございます。どうしても私の考え方的に、精神論を先行させた回答になりましたが、これがゆりさんの不安を少しでも取り除けていれば幸いです。\n　他に聞きたいことなどあればコメントにお書きください。ちょうど良い目標ができてよかったな、と前向きに思ってこれからの勉強を頑張ってください！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"志望校が決まらない"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"今の時期の判定はあまり気にしなくていいと思いますよ。受験直前の模試でE判定でも、合格する人はいっぱいいます。\n\nどこの大学も同じ、ということは絶対にないです。もしオープンキャンパスなどに参加されたのでしたら、その違いは肌で感じたと思います。自分が一番魅力的だと感じた大学を目指したほうがいいと思います。\n\n科目選択は迷いますよね。もし私だったら、数学はとらないかもしれません。数学が必要なところが京大だけなら、京大を目指さない限りはいらないかなと思うからです。阪大でも十分に高いレベルですしね。\n\nもし数学をとるなら、なぜ京大に行きたいのか、他の大学とはどう違うのかをはっきり言えるようにしてからのほうがいいと思います。それくらいの覚悟をして選んでください。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 2-2-.9-2-2 .9-2 2-2m0 10c2.7 0 5.8 1.29 6 2H6c.23-.72 3.31-2 6-2m0-12C9.79 4 8 5.79 8 8s1.79 4 4 4 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mb-1","children":"　私も高二の夏頃からは京大を目指していましたが、一つ申し上げておくと、京大はやはりかなりレベルが高いです。私の実経験でいうと、進研模試では、国数英でですが、偏差値73くらいをとってようやくD判定、高二で初めて受けた駿台模試でも63か65（数年も経ってるので記憶が曖昧です）くらいをとってようやくD判定でした。なので、駿台模試で偏差値50をとるのでは、まだ京大は厳しいのではないかと思います。京大でB判定以上を狙うのであれば、進研模試では偏差値80、駿台模試では偏差値75以上は少なくとも目指す必要があると思います。いずれにしろ、京大で勝負できるためには、偏差値70台は避けて通れぬ道です。現状の進研模試の偏差値56から算定しても、偏差値を少なくとも15以上は上げなければならないことになります。偏差値を15以上上げることは、3年間を使っても難しい所業です。それを、あなたは残る1年半でやらなければならないことになるので、相当に厳しい戦いであることは自覚しておいた方が良いでしょう。もっとも、私は法学部志望でしたので、以上に挙げた成績も法学部でのものです。しかし、文系だろうと理系だろうと、同じような次元で戦わなければならない世界であることは変わらないのではないかと私は思います。ただ私は、「じゃあ無理、諦めます」ではなくて、「どうせ無理でも、やれるところまでやってみよう」の精神でいて欲しいと思います。京大を目指して、そこを受けるつもりで勉強していれば、後からたとえば神戸大などに方向を変えるとなっても、いくらでも軌道修正は可能です（もちろん、ちゃんと勉強していればの話ですが）。私が最終的に北大に落ち着いたのも、共通テストが終わるまではずっと京大を第一志望から変えずに勉強していたからで、もし中途で志望校を下げていたら、おそらく北大にすら引っかかることはなかったのではないかと思います（実際に、共テ後の面談で、中途で志望校を下げた人の多くは共テの自己採点もそれほど芳しくなかったということを、担任の先生から聞かされたので）。ですから、かなり厳しい戦いにはなるにしても、「やれるところまでやってみよう」という姿勢で臨んで欲しいと私は思います。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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