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16:Tccb,とこ森が解答させていただきます。

一言で答えると、慶應専願にして馬油さんが「納得できるか」。
それが最も大事だと考えています。

まず少し安心できる話をします。

私も浪人生の11月に東進の冠模試でE判定をいただきました。それまで必死に勉強してきて、後がない状態でのE判定はかなりメンタルにくるものがあり、思わず模試の結果を破ってしまったのを覚えています。
しかし、それでも今一橋に通えています。
現役時代なんかはもっとひどくて、E判定の最下層付近をうろうろしていました（偏差値39とか）。なので冠で総合偏差値48は現役時代のとこ森よりマシです。友達にもE判定から受かったやつが山ほどいます。

そのうえで、思ったことを書いていきます。

第一に、馬油さんが譲れないポイントは「一橋」ですか？「商学部」ですか？それとも「高学歴」ですか？ということです。
科目ごとの偏差値的にみると数学が低く、配点的に「一橋」かつ「商学部」だと受かる可能性はあるが、苦戦はすると思います。
また、代案として出している「慶應」かつ「商学部」も同様に数学が原因で苦戦すると思います。
つまり、慶應専願にしようが、このまま突っ走ろうが本質的課題は「数学」なのではないでしょうか？
また、「数学が低い」という現状を踏まえて仮に手を変えるとすればそれは数学の強化は前提として、「数学が重視されない大学、学部」だと考えられます。例えば一橋でも数学の配点が異なる社会学部、法学部、あるいはそもそも数学が課されないけれども「高学歴の大学」などの手も考えられます。

第二に、仮に「一橋」かつ「商学部」が譲れないポイントの場合、本当に浪人はできないんですか？ということです。
というのも、慶應商学部の4年間学費は約500万円です。一橋なら約300万円です。そう考えると費用という面では、慶應専願にする場合と一年浪人して一橋に行った場合で差がありません。私はこの理論で親を説得しました。私の譲れないポイントは「一橋」かつ「法学部」だったので。

以上二点を踏まえた上で、とこ森個人の意見としては「慶應専願にする」選択肢はおすすめしません。「このまま突っ走る」か「数学が重視されない受験校を探す」の二択だと思います。おそらく慶應で考えているのは商学部A型だと思いますが、結局数学が課題であることに変わりはありません。慶應Ａ合格レベルの数学力になれば一橋合格の可能性も今よりぐっと近づくはずです。
「慶應専願にした場合勝算があるのか」、「譲れないポイントは何か（他の受験校も探す）」、「浪人の選択肢はまったくあり得ないのか」この三点についてもう一度考えてみることをお勧めします。1a:Te25,こんにちは。今年の春、一橋大学経済学部に合格した者です。

自分も受験生時代、共通テストが苦手で苦労しました。共通テスト模試は、ほとんどがE判定で、調子が良くてもD判定しか取れませんでした。自分は6月の進研模試は 600～610/900 だったと記憶しています。この時点で、りりさんと同じくらいの得点率ですが、合格することができました。本番の得点開示は、

国語 131/200
数1A 76/100
数2B 73/100
リーディング 76/100
リスニング 93/100
世界史 72/100
地理 79/100
物理基礎 47/50
化学基礎 47/50
∑ 694/900

でした。共テ結果での判定は、駿台ベネッセのものではc判定、河合のものではd判定でした。

夏休み中に、共テ、2次両方の過去問に着手できたことはとてもいい事だと思います。自分は、一橋は2次の配点が極端に高いこと、自分が他の一橋志望者と共通テストでは勝負できないことを、鑑みて2次の過去問慣れをとにかく優先しました。12月に入るまでは、とにかく2次の過去問を解きまくりました。一橋大学の2次は、くせが強く、難しいという話をよく聞くと思います。しかし、それ故に、過去問に多くの時間をかけた人は、ある程度の傾向をつかめると思います。とくに、数学や社会は重点的に取り組むべきだと思います。自分は、2次対策をやりこんだことが功を奏し、合格を掴むことができました。2次の点数開示は、

国語 54/110
数学 152/260
英語 170/260
世界史 64/160

でした。自分は、2次での数学と英語の配点の高さから、この2教科を軸に勝負することを決め、国語、世界史は足を引っ張り過ぎない程度に取り組むことにしました。その結果、自分の狙った通りのバランスで点がとれました。

ここまで2次の重要性を強調して話してきましたが、共通テストが重要でないわけではありません。実際、自分も共通テスト後の自己採点では、自分の手応え、期待よりも低い点数で、共テ後1週間は不安で押しつぶされそうでした。親にも、強がりでいい点数とれた気がすると言ってあったため、実際の点数を伝えると、志望校下げた方がいいんじゃないと言われました。しかし、自分が実際に一橋だけに絞って勉強してきたこと、キャンパスを見に行った際にここ以上に雰囲気が良く、勉強に適した場所はないことを伝えると、親も私のことを信じてくれました。

長くなりましたが、受験は共通テストだけでは決まりせん。だから、過度に共テ模試の結果で落ち込む必要はありません(そうはいっても、自分もそうだったように落ち込むこともあると思いますが)。大事なのは、模試から自分がどのような分野が苦手なのか、どこの基礎が抜けているのかを、見極めることです。りりさんの場合は、記述模試ならc判定が取れているようなので、十分勝負できる位置にはいます。

一橋志望、共テ模試ぶっちゃけこの点数は…に端的に答えるとすれば、

十分戦える

といえます。

しっかり自分の得意不得意を分析して、効率的に点数がとれれば、十分に合格できます。ファイトです！！🔥1c:T1053,こんにちは。
僕で良いのか分からないですが、回答させて下さい。

まず、早慶上智志望に変えた質問者さんの決断を否定はしません。
林修先生が言っていた言葉です。「成功するためには群像の感覚が必要だ」
これは、自分の適性を見極めて、自分が得意な分野で勝負するべきということです。
質問者さんは数学の苦手を克服できずに諦めたと仰っていました。
その点では正しい選択だったのかもしれません。

では質問者さんは何故、大学に行くことを選んだのでしょうか？
その目的は研究をしたいから？それとも、大学での勉強で教養をつけて、就職したいから？国立大のブランドが欲しいから？
色々あると思います。個人的には、理系で研究しないのであれば早慶で十分だと思います。
そして、早慶の魅力が分からないと仰っていましたが、そんなことはないです。
慶應には実に様々な人がいます。遊んでばかりの人、1年生から起業してる人、東大落ち鉄緑会出身者、インターンに励んでいる人、帰国子女で英語がペラペラ、本当のたまにいるお金持ち。
慶應志望とプロフィールに記載してありましたから慶應のことについて述べますが、本当にレベルの高い多様な人間がたくさんいる環境です
慶應は人間的に成長できる最高の環境だと思います。
コミュ力を伸ばせたり、色々な特技、情熱を持つ人から刺激をもらえたり。
僕は、この人達が将来の日本のリーダーなら日本も悪くないなと思えるほど、人間的魅力に満ち溢れている人が多いように感じます。

就職のために大学を目指していたなら、慶應は東大の次に次ぐブランド力を持っているそうです。

最後に......
これは僕の推測ですが（推測なので間違っていたらすいません）、科目数が少ない早慶なんて、馬鹿だと思っているのかもしれません。
だから、早慶志望に変えてもやる気が出ないのかもしれません。
でも、それは視野が狭いことだとも思います。大人になって、何科目勉強したなんて話はまずしませんし、それが強みになることもないです。（個人的には、数学は勉強しておいた方がいいと思う。大学になってからも数学は必要になる場面が多い）
受験が終わればまた新たなスタートラインが待っていて、色々なことで評価されます。
それに、早慶は科目が少ない分、3科目は相当なレベルを要求されるので、勉強する時間は国立大（東大や京大を除く）と変わらないくらい皆んな勉強しています。
そこに負い目を感じる必要は無いと思います。早慶も立派な日本を代表する大学です。

そして、【自分の決断に責任を持ってください】
早慶志望に変えた決断をしたならば、それに責任を持って下さい。そして、早慶に受かりましょう。
自分で決めたことに責任を持てないなんて、ダサくないですか？
決断したのに、やる気がでず、早慶も落ちた自分を想像してみて下さい。
その時に思うはずです。「第一志望を諦め、第二志望を第一志望に変えて、目指し始めたのにそこにも落ちた。自分は何もできない人間なんだな」
そしたら、自分に対して自信がなくなるかもしれません。自分のことが嫌いになっちゃうかもしれません。
これほど怖いことはないです。


ーーーーーーーーーーー
以上の話を聞いても、早慶より国立に行きたい気持ちがあるなら、再考してみても良いかもしれません。
最後に決めるのは自分自身。色々な人の話を聞いて決断して、それに責任を持って行動して下さい。

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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"残り半年。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"私も模試で最悪な点数が続く時期がありました。浪人を覚悟したほどです。750点ほどの模試はみるみる下がり、最終的には600点まで落ちました。でも第一志望に書く大学は変えませんでした。これが自分の実力ではない。あくまで模試だ、と自分に言い聞かせていたからです。現実逃避というかもしれませんが、絶対にうまくいかない時期というものは誰にでもくるものです。そこで折れてしまい第一志望を下げると、下げた大学を目標にしてしまい、再度元の第一志望の大学のレベルに戻すのが困難になります。私も、私の周りの友人も成績がガタ落ちする時期を経ましたが、殆どが第一志望を変更せず見事受かって行きました。マークが伸びるのはまだまだ先です。むしろ今の時期は落ちて当然と思ってもいいかなと個人的には考えます。\n今は一橋に行きたいという気持ちを大事にして、もう少し粘ってみてはどうでしょうか。案外努力は裏切りませんよ。模試はあくまで模試です。この悪い点が本番に当たらなくてよかったと思って、前を向きましょう。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"早慶に絞った受かる確率を上げたい"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"早慶コースありだと思います。\n社会、理科基礎とおさらばする事で確実に早慶を取る作戦に変更する人は毎年います。\n同様に東大京大或いは一橋と早慶全滅になる生徒も毎年います。\n\n注意点として慶應商は社会必須なので必然的に諦めることになります。\n\nしかし全科目やって一橋対策するより、英国数小論文を徹底的に今から鍛えて早稲田政経、早稲商、慶経のみを見据えて確実に合格を捥ぎ取る戦略を取った方が早慶以上合格率は確実に跳ね上がると思います。\n\n中立案として、社会は勉強時間抑えて英国数小論文対策に時間を注ぎ、社会の配点が低い一橋経済を第1志望にするのもありだと思います。\nそうしたら慶商も受けられますしね。\n\n一橋社会は日本一問題が難しいので経済学部志望の生徒は基本みんな大苦戦してあまり差が付きません。\n英国数は偏差値70、社会は偏差値55とかでも一橋突破の可能性は全然あります。\n\nまずは英国数を優先的に固めて、社会や理科基礎など早慶で使わない科目は後回しにし、英国数の完成を待ってから社会を始めるのも悪くないと思います。\n\n英国数に関しても一橋を意識した勉強をしていれば早慶レベルは軽々超えられると思います。\n\n英国数早慶合格レベル→英国数一橋合格レベル→小論文慶経対策→社会慶商合格レベル→社会一橋合格レベル→社会二科目、理科基礎一橋で足を引っ張らないレベル\n\n私が家庭教師だったら上記の優先順位で勉強させます"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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